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Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

icon for Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

50% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
50% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-value auctions, including a $236 million Klimt in November 2025 and a $181 million Pollock in May 2026, demonstrate that the upper end of the market can clear $150 million when exceptional single-owner collections and blue-chip modern works surface. However, such sales remain infrequent, driven by scarce supply of museum-quality pieces with strong provenance rather than consistent demand. The art market's recovery in 2025–2026 has favored selective, high-end transactions over broad volume, with private sales gaining share and fewer marquee lots expected through year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 59% because fall 2026 auctions lack confirmed $150 million-plus consignments, and historical patterns show these records cluster around major collection dispersals rather than occurring annually. Upcoming November sales and any late-year announcements represent the main swing factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$209
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-value auctions, including a $236 million Klimt in November 2025 and a $181 million Pollock in May 2026, demonstrate that the upper end of the market can clear $150 million when exceptional single-owner collections and blue-chip modern works surface. However, such sales remain infrequent, driven by scarce supply of museum-quality pieces with strong provenance rather than consistent demand. The art market's recovery in 2025–2026 has favored selective, high-end transactions over broad volume, with private sales gaining share and fewer marquee lots expected through year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 59% because fall 2026 auctions lack confirmed $150 million-plus consignments, and historical patterns show these records cluster around major collection dispersals rather than occurring annually. Upcoming November sales and any late-year announcements represent the main swing factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$209
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 41% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 41¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 41%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Jun 3, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?» — 41% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 41% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.