Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA confirm that 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record, with multiple months such as January and March setting new highs for their respective periods amid a long-term warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Current ENSO-neutral conditions are shifting rapidly toward El Niño, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of persistence through winter. This phase typically amplifies global temperature anomalies through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood that one or more 2026 months will exceed the existing record holder. Model ensembles project continued elevated temperatures through year-end, supporting the market-implied 87.5% probability for yes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$136,756 Обс.
$136,756 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
$136,756 Обс.
$136,756 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA confirm that 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record, with multiple months such as January and March setting new highs for their respective periods amid a long-term warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Current ENSO-neutral conditions are shifting rapidly toward El Niño, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of persistence through winter. This phase typically amplifies global temperature anomalies through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood that one or more 2026 months will exceed the existing record holder. Model ensembles project continued elevated temperatures through year-end, supporting the market-implied 87.5% probability for yes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$136,756Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA confirm that 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record, with multiple months such as January and March setting new highs for their respective periods amid a long-term warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Current ENSO-neutral conditions are shifting rapidly toward El Niño, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of persistence through winter. This phase typically amplifies global temperature anomalies through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood that one or more 2026 months will exceed the existing record holder. Model ensembles project continued elevated temperatures through year-end, supporting the market-implied 87.5% probability for yes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$136,756Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA confirm that 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record, with multiple months such as January and March setting new highs for their respective periods amid a long-term warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Current ENSO-neutral conditions are shifting rapidly toward El Niño, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of persistence through winter. This phase typically amplifies global temperature anomalies through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood that one or more 2026 months will exceed the existing record holder. Model ensembles project continued elevated temperatures through year-end, supporting the market-implied 87.5% probability for yes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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