Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear has rapidly disorganized Tropical Storm Fay, displacing its deep convection eastward of the low-level center and dropping maximum sustained winds from a peak near 65–70 mph late Sunday to around 40–50 mph by Monday evening. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the system is already weakening and forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or two as it drifts southwestward into persistently hostile conditions. Global models show consistent agreement on continued shear and loss of convection, leaving little opportunity for re-intensification before dissipation. While an unexpected, sharp reduction in shear could theoretically allow brief strengthening, current observations and guidance indicate the window has closed.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear has rapidly disorganized Tropical Storm Fay, displacing its deep convection eastward of the low-level center and dropping maximum sustained winds from a peak near 65–70 mph late Sunday to around 40–50 mph by Monday evening. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the system is already weakening and forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or two as it drifts southwestward into persistently hostile conditions. Global models show consistent agreement on continued shear and loss of convection, leaving little opportunity for re-intensification before dissipation. While an unexpected, sharp reduction in shear could theoretically allow brief strengthening, current observations and guidance indicate the window has closed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,070Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear has rapidly disorganized Tropical Storm Fay, displacing its deep convection eastward of the low-level center and dropping maximum sustained winds from a peak near 65–70 mph late Sunday to around 40–50 mph by Monday evening. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the system is already weakening and forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or two as it drifts southwestward into persistently hostile conditions. Global models show consistent agreement on continued shear and loss of convection, leaving little opportunity for re-intensification before dissipation. While an unexpected, sharp reduction in shear could theoretically allow brief strengthening, current observations and guidance indicate the window has closed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Обсяг
$1,070Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear has rapidly disorganized Tropical Storm Fay, displacing its deep convection eastward of the low-level center and dropping maximum sustained winds from a peak near 65–70 mph late Sunday to around 40–50 mph by Monday evening. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the system is already weakening and forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or two as it drifts southwestward into persistently hostile conditions. Global models show consistent agreement on continued shear and loss of convection, leaving little opportunity for re-intensification before dissipation. While an unexpected, sharp reduction in shear could theoretically allow brief strengthening, current observations and guidance indicate the window has closed.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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