Market-implied odds for the September 2026 core PCE month-over-month print center on 0.3% at 63% amid consensus forecasts of 0.30–0.32% from economists tracking the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report due October 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Traders price in a modest acceleration from August’s 0.2% reading, reflecting the hotter-than-expected September CPI at +0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, offset by softer PCE-relevant components in the PPI that prompted some downward revisions to 0.32%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains the focal point ahead of its December policy decision, with the market-implied distribution showing limited probability mass above 0.4% or below 0.2% as participants weigh energy-driven headline pressures against underlying service and goods trends.