Recent September CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% expected, has lifted nowcasts for the Fed’s preferred Core PCE gauge and anchored the 58% implied probability on a 0.3% print. August’s cooler 0.2% Core PCE outcome and subsequent downward revisions to prior months had tempered expectations, yet persistent shelter and services pressures evident in the latest CPI have shifted trader consensus toward modest reacceleration. Analysts currently project September Core PCE near 0.32% month-over-month, with year-over-year readings around 3.1%, still well above the 2% target and supporting the 28% odds on 0.4%. The October 29 release will directly inform FOMC rate-path expectations ahead of the December meeting.