Elon Musk's established posting rhythm on X, recently averaging 30–34 posts per day according to platform trackers, underpins trader consensus that the 40–64 tweet range leads for the August 10–12 weekend at 51% implied probability. Weekend periods often see moderated volume compared with weekday news cycles, and no major SpaceX, Tesla, or political developments are scheduled that would trigger the higher-output spikes seen in prior weeks. The 65–89 bin sits at 22.5% as a realistic upside if routine replies and memes accelerate, while sub-40 and 90-plus outcomes reflect lower-probability deviations from his documented habits. Markets price these short windows on real-time activity patterns rather than long-term averages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 51%
65-89 23%
<40 22%
90-114 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
<40
22%
40-64
51%
65-89
23%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
65-89 23%
<40 22%
90-114 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
<40
$173 KL.
22%
40-64
$170 KL.
51%
65-89
$1,112 KL.
23%
90-114
$261 KL.
5%
115-139
$100 KL.
1%
140-164
$602 KL.
<1%
165-189
$617 KL.
<1%
190-214
$149 KL.
<1%
215-239
$146 KL.
<1%
240+
$378 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established posting rhythm on X, recently averaging 30–34 posts per day according to platform trackers, underpins trader consensus that the 40–64 tweet range leads for the August 10–12 weekend at 51% implied probability. Weekend periods often see moderated volume compared with weekday news cycles, and no major SpaceX, Tesla, or political developments are scheduled that would trigger the higher-output spikes seen in prior weeks. The 65–89 bin sits at 22.5% as a realistic upside if routine replies and memes accelerate, while sub-40 and 90-plus outcomes reflect lower-probability deviations from his documented habits. Markets price these short windows on real-time activity patterns rather than long-term averages.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,660Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established posting rhythm on X, recently averaging 30–34 posts per day according to platform trackers, underpins trader consensus that the 40–64 tweet range leads for the August 10–12 weekend at 51% implied probability. Weekend periods often see moderated volume compared with weekday news cycles, and no major SpaceX, Tesla, or political developments are scheduled that would trigger the higher-output spikes seen in prior weeks. The 65–89 bin sits at 22.5% as a realistic upside if routine replies and memes accelerate, while sub-40 and 90-plus outcomes reflect lower-probability deviations from his documented habits. Markets price these short windows on real-time activity patterns rather than long-term averages.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$3,660Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's established posting rhythm on X, recently averaging 30–34 posts per day according to platform trackers, underpins trader consensus that the 40–64 tweet range leads for the August 10–12 weekend at 51% implied probability. Weekend periods often see moderated volume compared with weekday news cycles, and no major SpaceX, Tesla, or political developments are scheduled that would trigger the higher-output spikes seen in prior weeks. The 65–89 bin sits at 22.5% as a realistic upside if routine replies and memes accelerate, while sub-40 and 90-plus outcomes reflect lower-probability deviations from his documented habits. Markets price these short windows on real-time activity patterns rather than long-term averages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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