The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 37%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
<0.5% 17.8%
$28,267 KL.
$28,267 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
18%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
26%
2.0–2.5%
35%
>2.5%
37%
>2.5% 37%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
<0.5% 17.8%
$28,267 KL.
$28,267 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 KL.
18%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 KL.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 KL.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 KL.
26%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 KL.
35%
>2.5%
$4,088 KL.
37%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$28,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp