Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJuly 7 42%
July 8 21%
July 9 13.6%
Not released before August 9.0%
$160,262 KL.
$160,262 KL.
Jul 31, 2026
July 1
2%
July 2
3%
July 3
1%
July 4
<1%
July 5
<1%
July 6
7%
July 7
42%
July 8
21%
July 9
14%
July 10
1%
July 11
2%
July 12
7%
July 13
4%
July 14
2%
July 15
1%
July 16
2%
July 17
1%
July 18
3%
July 19
2%
July 20
<1%
July 21
<1%
July 22
<1%
July 23
1%
July 24
1%
July 25
<1%
July 26
<1%
July 27
<1%
July 28
<1%
July 29
<1%
July 30
2%
July 31
<1%
Not released before August
9%
July 7 42%
July 8 21%
July 9 13.6%
Not released before August 9.0%
$160,262 KL.
$160,262 KL.
Jul 31, 2026
July 1
$5,129 KL.
2%
July 2
$3,251 KL.
3%
July 3
$1,383 KL.
1%
July 4
$2,655 KL.
<1%
July 5
$697 KL.
<1%
July 6
$1,703 KL.
7%
July 7
$37,088 KL.
42%
July 8
$4,239 KL.
21%
July 9
$19,758 KL.
14%
July 10
$7,162 KL.
1%
July 11
$2,985 KL.
2%
July 12
$509 KL.
7%
July 13
$1,643 KL.
4%
July 14
$1,540 KL.
2%
July 15
$2,040 KL.
1%
July 16
$11,845 KL.
2%
July 17
$2,857 KL.
1%
July 18
$432 KL.
3%
July 19
$630 KL.
2%
July 20
$445 KL.
<1%
July 21
$887 KL.
<1%
July 22
$481 KL.
<1%
July 23
$1,500 KL.
1%
July 24
$1,477 KL.
1%
July 25
$390 KL.
<1%
July 26
$354 KL.
<1%
July 27
$740 KL.
<1%
July 28
$1,953 KL.
<1%
July 29
$682 KL.
<1%
July 30
$2,460 KL.
2%
July 31
$1,730 KL.
<1%
Not released before August
$11,651 KL.
9%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
Khối lượng
$160,262Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$160,262Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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