Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Chicago on August 13?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 13?
78-79°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 KL.
$73,375 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 KL.
$73,375 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
67°F or below
$4,253 KL.
No
68-69°F
$3,860 KL.
No
70-71°F
$4,835 KL.
No
72-73°F
$3,330 KL.
No
74-75°F
$10,630 KL.
No
76-77°F
$6,317 KL.
No
78-79°F
$6,493 KL.
Yes
80-81°F
$15,294 KL.
No
82-83°F
$7,734 KL.
No
84-85°F
$3,580 KL.
No
86°F or higher
$7,050 KL.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$73,375Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$73,375Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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