Recent KMA and ensemble model guidance point to Seoul experiencing typical mid-July monsoon conditions on July 22, with daytime highs likely peaking near 28–29 °C amid high humidity and scattered afternoon convection. Thunderstorm timing and coverage introduce the main uncertainty, as earlier or more widespread rain can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting insolation, while delayed or localized storms allow brief spikes toward 30 °C. Current trader consensus clusters tightly on 28–29 °C because historical July maxima in Seoul average near 30 °C yet frequently fall a degree or two under active monsoon flow, and short-range model runs show only modest spread around this range. Updated 48-hour forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration will refine the exact peak as steering patterns and instability indices become clearer.