Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to Shanghai highs of 36–38°C on July 15 under a strengthening subtropical ridge that favors clear skies and southerly flow, sustaining the current early-July heat pattern. Minor probability spreads among these outcomes reflect small uncertainties in afternoon convective timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any localized sea-breeze effects that could shave or add 1°C. Historical mid-July climatology shows typical maxima near 33°C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the ridge’s position; updated 48-hour runs and official bulletins will refine whether peak readings reach the upper or lower edge of that narrow range.