Recent post-heatwave cooling across Israel has centered trader focus on the 30–34°C range for Tel Aviv’s August 19 maximum, with equal market-implied odds reflecting tight model spreads. After early-August peaks exceeding seasonal norms by several degrees, the Israel Meteorological Service notes a slight temperature drop and reduced heat stress, driven by increased cloud cover, lighter winds, and Mediterranean sea-breeze moderation that typically caps coastal highs near the long-term August average of 30–31°C. Ensemble forecasts from regional models currently cluster between 30–32°C, while 33–34°C outcomes would require stronger subsidence or delayed marine influence. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Tel Aviv station; fresh IMS updates and next ECMWF runs over the coming 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 19?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 19?
32°C 47%
31°C 26%
33°C 26%
34°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
29°C or below
3%
30°C
9%
31°C
26%
32°C
47%
33°C
26%
34°C
10%
35°C
7%
36°C
4%
37°C
4%
38°C
7%
39°C or higher
4%
32°C 47%
31°C 26%
33°C 26%
34°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
29°C or below
$0 KL.
3%
30°C
$0 KL.
9%
31°C
$0 KL.
26%
32°C
$0 KL.
47%
33°C
$0 KL.
26%
34°C
$0 KL.
10%
35°C
$5 KL.
7%
36°C
$5 KL.
4%
37°C
$5 KL.
4%
38°C
$5 KL.
7%
39°C or higher
$5 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent post-heatwave cooling across Israel has centered trader focus on the 30–34°C range for Tel Aviv’s August 19 maximum, with equal market-implied odds reflecting tight model spreads. After early-August peaks exceeding seasonal norms by several degrees, the Israel Meteorological Service notes a slight temperature drop and reduced heat stress, driven by increased cloud cover, lighter winds, and Mediterranean sea-breeze moderation that typically caps coastal highs near the long-term August average of 30–31°C. Ensemble forecasts from regional models currently cluster between 30–32°C, while 33–34°C outcomes would require stronger subsidence or delayed marine influence. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Tel Aviv station; fresh IMS updates and next ECMWF runs over the coming 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$25Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent post-heatwave cooling across Israel has centered trader focus on the 30–34°C range for Tel Aviv’s August 19 maximum, with equal market-implied odds reflecting tight model spreads. After early-August peaks exceeding seasonal norms by several degrees, the Israel Meteorological Service notes a slight temperature drop and reduced heat stress, driven by increased cloud cover, lighter winds, and Mediterranean sea-breeze moderation that typically caps coastal highs near the long-term August average of 30–31°C. Ensemble forecasts from regional models currently cluster between 30–32°C, while 33–34°C outcomes would require stronger subsidence or delayed marine influence. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Tel Aviv station; fresh IMS updates and next ECMWF runs over the coming 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$25Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent post-heatwave cooling across Israel has centered trader focus on the 30–34°C range for Tel Aviv’s August 19 maximum, with equal market-implied odds reflecting tight model spreads. After early-August peaks exceeding seasonal norms by several degrees, the Israel Meteorological Service notes a slight temperature drop and reduced heat stress, driven by increased cloud cover, lighter winds, and Mediterranean sea-breeze moderation that typically caps coastal highs near the long-term August average of 30–31°C. Ensemble forecasts from regional models currently cluster between 30–32°C, while 33–34°C outcomes would require stronger subsidence or delayed marine influence. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Tel Aviv station; fresh IMS updates and next ECMWF runs over the coming 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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