Three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes have been confirmed by USGS monitoring during the August 10–16 window, including the M7.4 event in Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and the M7.7 offshore quake near East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on August 14. This tally aligns with typical weekly background rates of roughly one to two such events globally, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation period nearly complete and no additional qualifying shocks recorded in recent model runs or real-time data, trader consensus has converged on exactly three at 96% implied probability. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event before resolution could still push the total to four, though current observational thresholds make that outcome improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
3 96.0%
4 4.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,153 KL.
$35,153 KL.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
96%
4
4%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 96.0%
4 4.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,153 KL.
$35,153 KL.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
96%
4
4%
5
1%
>5
1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Nguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Nguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes have been confirmed by USGS monitoring during the August 10–16 window, including the M7.4 event in Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and the M7.7 offshore quake near East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on August 14. This tally aligns with typical weekly background rates of roughly one to two such events globally, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. With the observation period nearly complete and no additional qualifying shocks recorded in recent model runs or real-time data, trader consensus has converged on exactly three at 96% implied probability. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event before resolution could still push the total to four, though current observational thresholds make that outcome improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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