**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026.** USGS records confirm a single qualifying event—an intermediate-depth M6.5 quake on September 17 near Nikolski, Alaska—while the September 20 Papua New Guinea event registered 6.4 and fell short. Global catalogs show this aligns with baseline rates of roughly one M6.5+ quake per week on average, with no additional events crossing the threshold before the period closed. The overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for “1” reflects traders’ assessment of completed seismic data and the rarity of clustered large-magnitude activity in a seven-day window. A late revision elevating the Papua New Guinea event or an unreported aftershock sequence could still alter the count, though both remain unlikely given official magnitudes and depths.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
1 97.4%
2 2.6%
3 2.4%
4 1.1%
$15,588 KL.
$15,588 KL.
Sep 21, 2026
0
1%
1
97%
2
3%
3
2%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
1 97.4%
2 2.6%
3 2.4%
4 1.1%
$15,588 KL.
$15,588 KL.
Sep 21, 2026
0
$5,878 KL.
1%
1
$5,158 KL.
97%
2
$2,857 KL.
3%
3
$643 KL.
2%
4
$241 KL.
1%
5
$467 KL.
1%
more than 5
$344 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026.** USGS records confirm a single qualifying event—an intermediate-depth M6.5 quake on September 17 near Nikolski, Alaska—while the September 20 Papua New Guinea event registered 6.4 and fell short. Global catalogs show this aligns with baseline rates of roughly one M6.5+ quake per week on average, with no additional events crossing the threshold before the period closed. The overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for “1” reflects traders’ assessment of completed seismic data and the rarity of clustered large-magnitude activity in a seven-day window. A late revision elevating the Papua New Guinea event or an unreported aftershock sequence could still alter the count, though both remain unlikely given official magnitudes and depths.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Thị trường mở: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15,588Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026.** USGS records confirm a single qualifying event—an intermediate-depth M6.5 quake on September 17 near Nikolski, Alaska—while the September 20 Papua New Guinea event registered 6.4 and fell short. Global catalogs show this aligns with baseline rates of roughly one M6.5+ quake per week on average, with no additional events crossing the threshold before the period closed. The overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for “1” reflects traders’ assessment of completed seismic data and the rarity of clustered large-magnitude activity in a seven-day window. A late revision elevating the Papua New Guinea event or an unreported aftershock sequence could still alter the count, though both remain unlikely given official magnitudes and depths.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Khối lượng
$15,588Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026.** USGS records confirm a single qualifying event—an intermediate-depth M6.5 quake on September 17 near Nikolski, Alaska—while the September 20 Papua New Guinea event registered 6.4 and fell short. Global catalogs show this aligns with baseline rates of roughly one M6.5+ quake per week on average, with no additional events crossing the threshold before the period closed. The overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for “1” reflects traders’ assessment of completed seismic data and the rarity of clustered large-magnitude activity in a seven-day window. A late revision elevating the Papua New Guinea event or an unreported aftershock sequence could still alter the count, though both remain unlikely given official magnitudes and depths.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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