Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including sites at Natanz and Isfahan in 2025 and into 2026, have damaged key enrichment and conversion infrastructure, limiting Tehran's ability to advance its program rapidly despite retaining a stockpile of highly enriched uranium. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 show no major changes in stockpiles or capabilities since the strikes, with restricted inspections and ongoing rebuilding efforts at fortified underground locations facing continued international scrutiny and potential further action. This sustained pressure underpins trader consensus that weaponization before 2027 remains improbable. Shifts could arise from successful covert reconstruction, reduced enforcement of sanctions, or diplomatic agreements easing restrictions on enrichment activities.