US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites, according to assessments from the IAEA, US intelligence, and experts like David Albright. These operations, combined with subsequent monitoring gaps and Iran's limited cooperation with inspectors, have extended estimated breakout timelines to two or more years while raising detection risks and technological hurdles. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's non-weapon commitment, and the absence of verified resumption of large-scale enrichment further reinforce trader consensus on the low likelihood of a completed nuclear device by the end of 2026. Remaining uncertainties include potential recovery of buried materials, a rapid political decision to pursue weaponization, or covert reconstruction efforts that could accelerate progress despite current constraints.