Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-influenced guidance, and European ensembles show Warsaw’s October 9 minimum centered near 8–10 °C under moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and 10–15 mph winds suppress temperature drops below the seasonal norm, while the preceding warm spell (daytime readings near 22 °C) delays the seasonal cooling trend. This consensus keeps the 5 °C-or-below and 15 °C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied, as modest shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could push the low several degrees either way before resolution. Updated model runs through the weekend will clarify whether the boundary layer remains well mixed or allows sharper overnight declines.