Dan Koh's projected 26-27 point victory in the open Massachusetts 6th district aligns with the market's near-certain 25-30% Democratic margin outcome. The district's consistent Democratic lean, shown in recent presidential results, combined with Koh's strong primary performance and substantial fundraising edge over Republican Micah Jones, drove trader consensus. Seth Moulton's retirement created an open seat without altering the underlying partisan balance. Final certification of the November 3 results could theoretically shift the exact margin, though reported tallies across multiple sources show little variance, and no major disputes or recounts have emerged to alter the outcome.