**Recent search efforts for MH370 have come up empty, driving near-certain trader consensus on “No.”** The latest Ocean Infinity seabed campaign, conducted under a “no-find, no-fee” deal in the highest-probability southern Indian Ocean zone, wrapped in January 2026 after surveying roughly 7,571 square kilometers across two phases with no confirmed aircraft debris or wreckage field located. Malaysia’s Air Accident Investigation Bureau formally notified families in March 2026 that operations had yielded nothing, and active searching has since paused amid seasonal weather constraints in the southern hemisphere. With the contract window closing June 30, 2026—just twelve days from now—and no resumed operations underway, the window for a last-minute discovery is effectively closed. Extensive prior mapping (over 140,000 square kilometers cumulatively) and the absence of new high-confidence leads reinforce the market-implied 98.4% probability on “No.” **Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow.** An unforeseen private expedition, breakthrough analysis of existing data, or rapid mobilization before the deadline could theoretically shift the outcome, though none are currently indicated by official statements, contract terms, or reported developments. Traders view these as low-probability tail risks given the timeline and operational realities.