Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật200-219 20%
180-199 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
MỚI
$272,614 KL.
MỚI
$272,614 KL.
Jul 3, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
2%
140-159
5%
160-179
13%
180-199
19%
200-219
20%
220-239
16%
240-259
8%
260-279
5%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
3%
340-359
2%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 20%
180-199 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
MỚI
$272,614 KL.
MỚI
$272,614 KL.
Jul 3, 2026
<20
$6,441 KL.
<1%
20-39
$6,441 KL.
<1%
40-59
$1,158 KL.
<1%
60-79
$9,677 KL.
<1%
80-99
$2,097 KL.
<1%
100-119
$2,519 KL.
1%
120-139
$2,777 KL.
2%
140-159
$2,685 KL.
5%
160-179
$1,901 KL.
13%
180-199
$5,997 KL.
19%
200-219
$4,165 KL.
20%
220-239
$2,112 KL.
16%
240-259
$2,308 KL.
8%
260-279
$1,710 KL.
5%
280-299
$2,194 KL.
3%
300-319
$2,007 KL.
2%
320-339
$2,843 KL.
3%
340-359
$7,890 KL.
2%
360-379
$8,751 KL.
1%
380-399
$8,769 KL.
1%
400-419
$13,281 KL.
<1%
420-439
$13,775 KL.
<1%
440-459
$54,774 KL.
<1%
460-479
$22,677 KL.
<1%
480-499
$18,969 KL.
<1%
500+
$64,697 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$272,614Ngày kết thúc
Jul 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$272,614Ngày kết thúc
Jul 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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