Current trader consensus at 94.5% against a new pandemic in 2026 reflects official assessments from the WHO and CDC that existing outbreaks lack sustained human-to-human transmission required for global spread. The Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, while severe with thousands of cases and a high case fatality ratio, remains regionally contained without evidence of efficient airborne or contact-based chains outside affected areas. Sporadic avian influenza H5N1 detections show no reassortment enabling easy person-to-person spread, and rising measles activity stems from vaccine coverage gaps rather than a novel pathogen. Surveillance data indicate zoonotic spillovers continue but rarely achieve pandemic thresholds. Realistic challenges include rapid viral evolution in Ebola or influenza strains or undetected community transmission in under-monitored regions, which could alter risk if confirmed by upcoming model updates or case reports.