Democrats hold a clear edge in 2026 House forecasts, with prediction markets and polling aggregators assigning them roughly 73-85% odds of securing a majority due to the typical midterm penalty against the president's party, a favorable generic ballot environment, and competitive district fundamentals. This consensus drives Hakeem Jeffries' 76.5% share as the presumptive next Speaker should his party prevail. Mike Johnson's 11.2% reflects the narrower Republican path to retention amid those headwinds. Lower-probability alternatives such as Katherine Clark, Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and Pete Aguilar represent intra-party succession scenarios if leadership contests arise after the election. Key upcoming catalysts include final generic ballot trends, special election results, and candidate recruitment through November.