Republicans currently hold a narrow 217-212 majority in the House with one independent and five vacancies following several 2026 resignations and deaths, including those of members such as Doug LaMalfa. A limited number of special elections have occurred since the start of the 119th Congress, with Democratic candidates securing some gains in open seats but not enough net flips to threaten control. Upcoming specials scheduled before November remain few and concentrated in districts where the incumbent party is expected to retain the seat under current polling and fundraising trends. This stability, combined with the absence of widespread vacancies or procedural disruptions, underpins trader expectations that the majority will hold until the general election.