Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader pricing places the highest probability on outcomes below 190 seats, reflecting historical patterns where the president's party loses ground in midterm elections. Recent generic congressional ballot surveys show Democrats maintaining a modest lead, while ongoing redistricting in several states continues to shape competitive districts. Key variables that could shift these ranges include shifts in economic indicators, approval trends for the current administration, and the resolution of open seats or retirements. With probabilities spread across multiple bins, no single outcome yet commands a clear majority of trader conviction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
190-194 12%
$234,004 KL.
$234,004 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
27%
190-194
12%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
1%
Below 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
190-194 12%
$234,004 KL.
$234,004 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$17,563 KL.
27%
190-194
$8,510 KL.
12%
195-199
$28,089 KL.
12%
200-204
$22,113 KL.
12%
205-209
$35,373 KL.
10%
210-214
$12,829 KL.
9%
215-219
$7,989 KL.
11%
220-224
$53,712 KL.
9%
225-229
$21,389 KL.
3%
230+
$26,436 KL.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader pricing places the highest probability on outcomes below 190 seats, reflecting historical patterns where the president's party loses ground in midterm elections. Recent generic congressional ballot surveys show Democrats maintaining a modest lead, while ongoing redistricting in several states continues to shape competitive districts. Key variables that could shift these ranges include shifts in economic indicators, approval trends for the current administration, and the resolution of open seats or retirements. With probabilities spread across multiple bins, no single outcome yet commands a clear majority of trader conviction.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$234,004Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader pricing places the highest probability on outcomes below 190 seats, reflecting historical patterns where the president's party loses ground in midterm elections. Recent generic congressional ballot surveys show Democrats maintaining a modest lead, while ongoing redistricting in several states continues to shape competitive districts. Key variables that could shift these ranges include shifts in economic indicators, approval trends for the current administration, and the resolution of open seats or retirements. With probabilities spread across multiple bins, no single outcome yet commands a clear majority of trader conviction.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$234,004Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader pricing places the highest probability on outcomes below 190 seats, reflecting historical patterns where the president's party loses ground in midterm elections. Recent generic congressional ballot surveys show Democrats maintaining a modest lead, while ongoing redistricting in several states continues to shape competitive districts. Key variables that could shift these ranges include shifts in economic indicators, approval trends for the current administration, and the resolution of open seats or retirements. With probabilities spread across multiple bins, no single outcome yet commands a clear majority of trader conviction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp