Recent declines in U.S. retail gasoline prices have positioned the sub-$4.0200 range as the leading market-implied outcome, with trader consensus reflecting a national average near $4.04–$4.06 as of early November. Falling crude benchmarks, including Brent slipping below $100 and WTI in the high $80s to low $90s, combined with the seasonal shift to lower-cost winter-blend fuel and reduced driving demand, have driven the two-week pullback from October levels above $4.30. Easing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and post-midterm expectations for reduced Middle East supply risks have further tempered forward-looking pricing. With resolution imminent, these factors continue to support elevated probability on the lowest bracket while leaving room for last-minute volatility in refining margins or inventory data.