This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Trader sentiment in the "What will happen before GTA VI?" market, boasting over $21 million in volume, hinges on Rockstar Games' reaffirmed November 19, 2026 launch for Grand Theft Auto VI, solidified by a fresh Best Buy affiliate email leak today confirming pre-orders from May 18-21 ahead of Take-Two's May 21 earnings call. This timeline fuels near-certainty (99.6% implied probability) on Drake releasing Iceman, backed by his recent studio confirmations and summer rollout buzz outpacing GTA VI's fall window. GPT-6 (66%) reflects accelerating AI hype from OpenAI previews, while Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums (54-55%) track streaming metrics and label teases. Geopolitical wildcards like China invading Taiwan (51%) and Bitcoin hitting $1M (49%) capture crowded uncertainty, with any Take-Two delay signal poised to boost all pre-release odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader sentiment in the "What will happen before GTA VI?" market, boasting over $21 million in volume, hinges on Rockstar Games' reaffirmed November 19, 2026 launch for Grand Theft Auto VI, solidified by a fresh Best Buy affiliate email leak today confirming pre-orders from May 18-21 ahead of Take-Two's May 21 earnings call. This timeline fuels near-certainty (99.6% implied probability) on Drake releasing Iceman, backed by his recent studio confirmations and summer rollout buzz outpacing GTA VI's fall window. GPT-6 (66%) reflects accelerating AI hype from OpenAI previews, while Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums (54-55%) track streaming metrics and label teases. Geopolitical wildcards like China invading Taiwan (51%) and Bitcoin hitting $1M (49%) capture crowded uncertainty, with any Take-Two delay signal poised to boost all pre-release odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards
New Rihanna Album rises to 60%4%
Bad Bunny’s historic win for the all-Spanish album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' at the 2026 Grammys boosted market confidence in new music releases, impacting the probabilities of new albums before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Trader sentiment in the "What will happen before GTA VI?" market, boasting over $21 million in volume, hinges on Rockstar Games' reaffirmed November 19, 2026 launch for Grand Theft Auto VI, solidified by a fresh Best Buy affiliate email leak today confirming pre-orders from May 18-21 ahead of Take-Two's May 21 earnings call. This timeline fuels near-certainty (99.6% implied probability) on Drake releasing Iceman, backed by his recent studio confirmations and summer rollout buzz outpacing GTA VI's fall window. GPT-6 (66%) reflects accelerating AI hype from OpenAI previews, while Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums (54-55%) track streaming metrics and label teases. Geopolitical wildcards like China invading Taiwan (51%) and Bitcoin hitting $1M (49%) capture crowded uncertainty, with any Take-Two delay signal poised to boost all pre-release odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader sentiment in the "What will happen before GTA VI?" market, boasting over $21 million in volume, hinges on Rockstar Games' reaffirmed November 19, 2026 launch for Grand Theft Auto VI, solidified by a fresh Best Buy affiliate email leak today confirming pre-orders from May 18-21 ahead of Take-Two's May 21 earnings call. This timeline fuels near-certainty (99.6% implied probability) on Drake releasing Iceman, backed by his recent studio confirmations and summer rollout buzz outpacing GTA VI's fall window. GPT-6 (66%) reflects accelerating AI hype from OpenAI previews, while Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums (54-55%) track streaming metrics and label teases. Geopolitical wildcards like China invading Taiwan (51%) and Bitcoin hitting $1M (49%) capture crowded uncertainty, with any Take-Two delay signal poised to boost all pre-release odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards
New Rihanna Album rises to 60%4%
Bad Bunny’s historic win for the all-Spanish album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' at the 2026 Grammys boosted market confidence in new music releases, impacting the probabilities of new albums before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
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"Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 9 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "Đình chiến Nga-Ukraine" ở mức 100%, tiếp theo là "Drake phát hành Iceman" ở mức 99%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 100¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 100% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" đã tạo $21.9 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào May 2, 2025. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?," duyệt 9 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" là "Đình chiến Nga-Ukraine" ở mức 100%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 100% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "Drake phát hành Iceman" ở mức 99%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $21.9 million được giao dịch trên "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 100¢ cho "Đình chiến Nga-Ukraine" trong thị trường "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 100% khả năng "Đình chiến Nga-Ukraine" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 100¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 0¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng Jul 31, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 847 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang đặt cược vào đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Điều gì sẽ xảy ra trước GTA VI?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
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