Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 72.4%
Google 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.7%
$5,761,810 KL.
$5,761,810 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
16%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.7%
$5,761,810 KL.
$5,761,810 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$823,340 KL.
72%
$503,224 KL.
16%
OpenAI
$330,115 KL.
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 KL.
3%
Meta
$127,160 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$292,839 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$360,397 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,761,810Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$5,761,810Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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