Toy Story 5 holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the third-biggest 2026 opening weekend thanks to the franchise’s proven box-office muscle, Pixar’s animation brand strength, and expected wide family appeal during a crowded summer or holiday window. Historical Toy Story releases have routinely delivered massive debuts supported by merchandising and repeat viewings, positioning the sequel ahead of other tentpoles in current tracking. Realistic upset paths include stronger-than-expected presales or reviews for Avengers: Doomsday or Dune: Messiah if their release dates create less direct competition, or if Toy Story 5 faces softer family turnout amid shifting audience tastes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.1%
$30,740 KL.
$30,740 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.1%
$30,740 KL.
$30,740 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$19,251 KL.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$2,164 KL.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,755 KL.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,695 KL.
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,951 KL.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,290 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5 holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the third-biggest 2026 opening weekend thanks to the franchise’s proven box-office muscle, Pixar’s animation brand strength, and expected wide family appeal during a crowded summer or holiday window. Historical Toy Story releases have routinely delivered massive debuts supported by merchandising and repeat viewings, positioning the sequel ahead of other tentpoles in current tracking. Realistic upset paths include stronger-than-expected presales or reviews for Avengers: Doomsday or Dune: Messiah if their release dates create less direct competition, or if Toy Story 5 faces softer family turnout amid shifting audience tastes.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Khối lượng
$30,740Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5 holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the third-biggest 2026 opening weekend thanks to the franchise’s proven box-office muscle, Pixar’s animation brand strength, and expected wide family appeal during a crowded summer or holiday window. Historical Toy Story releases have routinely delivered massive debuts supported by merchandising and repeat viewings, positioning the sequel ahead of other tentpoles in current tracking. Realistic upset paths include stronger-than-expected presales or reviews for Avengers: Doomsday or Dune: Messiah if their release dates create less direct competition, or if Toy Story 5 faces softer family turnout amid shifting audience tastes.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$30,740Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5 holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the third-biggest 2026 opening weekend thanks to the franchise’s proven box-office muscle, Pixar’s animation brand strength, and expected wide family appeal during a crowded summer or holiday window. Historical Toy Story releases have routinely delivered massive debuts supported by merchandising and repeat viewings, positioning the sequel ahead of other tentpoles in current tracking. Realistic upset paths include stronger-than-expected presales or reviews for Avengers: Doomsday or Dune: Messiah if their release dates create less direct competition, or if Toy Story 5 faces softer family turnout amid shifting audience tastes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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