Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained air-sea superiority preparations, or other indicators of imminent offensive operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through Coast Guard patrols, research vessel activity east of Taiwan, and reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, while pursuing diplomatic channels including the scheduled late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit. Taiwan has responded with defensive modernization, including joint drone and missile live-fire drills and supplementary defense budgets, without triggering escalation thresholds. Official assessments note the PLA currently lacks sufficient multi-axis landing and sustainment capacity for a full invasion, with potential windows cited later in the decade. These patterns align with trader consensus that near-term conflict remains unlikely absent sudden shifts in U.S.-China relations or cross-strait signaling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12% khả năng
$3,230,964 KL.
$3,230,964 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
12% khả năng
$3,230,964 KL.
$3,230,964 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained air-sea superiority preparations, or other indicators of imminent offensive operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through Coast Guard patrols, research vessel activity east of Taiwan, and reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, while pursuing diplomatic channels including the scheduled late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit. Taiwan has responded with defensive modernization, including joint drone and missile live-fire drills and supplementary defense budgets, without triggering escalation thresholds. Official assessments note the PLA currently lacks sufficient multi-axis landing and sustainment capacity for a full invasion, with potential windows cited later in the decade. These patterns align with trader consensus that near-term conflict remains unlikely absent sudden shifts in U.S.-China relations or cross-strait signaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,230,964Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained air-sea superiority preparations, or other indicators of imminent offensive operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through Coast Guard patrols, research vessel activity east of Taiwan, and reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, while pursuing diplomatic channels including the scheduled late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit. Taiwan has responded with defensive modernization, including joint drone and missile live-fire drills and supplementary defense budgets, without triggering escalation thresholds. Official assessments note the PLA currently lacks sufficient multi-axis landing and sustainment capacity for a full invasion, with potential windows cited later in the decade. These patterns align with trader consensus that near-term conflict remains unlikely absent sudden shifts in U.S.-China relations or cross-strait signaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,230,964Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained air-sea superiority preparations, or other indicators of imminent offensive operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through Coast Guard patrols, research vessel activity east of Taiwan, and reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, while pursuing diplomatic channels including the scheduled late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit. Taiwan has responded with defensive modernization, including joint drone and missile live-fire drills and supplementary defense budgets, without triggering escalation thresholds. Official assessments note the PLA currently lacks sufficient multi-axis landing and sustainment capacity for a full invasion, with potential windows cited later in the decade. These patterns align with trader consensus that near-term conflict remains unlikely absent sudden shifts in U.S.-China relations or cross-strait signaling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp