Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 12+ downtime days for Claude AI at 42% implied probability, driven by seven incident days already recorded through May 14—clustered on May 4, 6-9, and freshly May 12-13 with multiple elevated error rates on claude.ai, Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, and related services like Claude Code. Frequent partial outages, despite 99%+ monthly uptime, signal ongoing scaling challenges at Anthropic amid surging demand for its large language models, eroding reliability. The 9-11 (30%) and 6-8 (28%) outcomes reflect bets on persistent but not catastrophic instability through month-end, with no root-cause fixes announced and potential for further disruptions during peak usage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật12+ 31%
9-11 30%
6-8 20.5%
3-5 16.3%
$33,488 KL.
$33,488 KL.
May 31, 2026
3-5
13%
6-8
34%
9-11
30%
12+
42%
12+ 31%
9-11 30%
6-8 20.5%
3-5 16.3%
$33,488 KL.
$33,488 KL.
May 31, 2026
3-5
$3,855 KL.
13%
6-8
$1,093 KL.
34%
9-11
$659 KL.
30%
12+
$4,982 KL.
42%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 12+ downtime days for Claude AI at 42% implied probability, driven by seven incident days already recorded through May 14—clustered on May 4, 6-9, and freshly May 12-13 with multiple elevated error rates on claude.ai, Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, and related services like Claude Code. Frequent partial outages, despite 99%+ monthly uptime, signal ongoing scaling challenges at Anthropic amid surging demand for its large language models, eroding reliability. The 9-11 (30%) and 6-8 (28%) outcomes reflect bets on persistent but not catastrophic instability through month-end, with no root-cause fixes announced and potential for further disruptions during peak usage.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Thị trường mở: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,488Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 12+ downtime days for Claude AI at 42% implied probability, driven by seven incident days already recorded through May 14—clustered on May 4, 6-9, and freshly May 12-13 with multiple elevated error rates on claude.ai, Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, and related services like Claude Code. Frequent partial outages, despite 99%+ monthly uptime, signal ongoing scaling challenges at Anthropic amid surging demand for its large language models, eroding reliability. The 9-11 (30%) and 6-8 (28%) outcomes reflect bets on persistent but not catastrophic instability through month-end, with no root-cause fixes announced and potential for further disruptions during peak usage.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Khối lượng
$33,488Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 12+ downtime days for Claude AI at 42% implied probability, driven by seven incident days already recorded through May 14—clustered on May 4, 6-9, and freshly May 12-13 with multiple elevated error rates on claude.ai, Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, and related services like Claude Code. Frequent partial outages, despite 99%+ monthly uptime, signal ongoing scaling challenges at Anthropic amid surging demand for its large language models, eroding reliability. The 9-11 (30%) and 6-8 (28%) outcomes reflect bets on persistent but not catastrophic instability through month-end, with no root-cause fixes announced and potential for further disruptions during peak usage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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