**The 71% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from a July 2026 antitrust lawsuit filed by 12 states that has imposed a court-ordered hold on the $111 billion deal.** The transaction, announced in late February 2026 after Paramount outbid Netflix, secured shareholder approval in April, U.S. Department of Justice clearance in June, and most international regulatory nods by mid-August. However, the states’ challenge—centered on reduced competition in film distribution, cable networks, and streaming—led to a temporary restraining order and a stipulated extension of the closing deadline to June 1, 2027. A federal trial is now scheduled for March 2027, well beyond year-end. Paramount added a “ticking fee” payable to WBD shareholders starting after September 30, 2026, to compensate for delays, signaling management’s recognition that closure before 2027 faces significant procedural and legal barriers. While nearly all other approvals are complete and the companies remain committed, the active litigation creates a hard stop that makes a 2026 close improbable under current timelines.