Recent shareholder approval of the $111 billion Paramount Skydance deal for Warner Bros. Discovery has anchored trader sentiment at 69.6% implied probability for a close by end of 2026. Paramount reaffirmed “great progress” and a late-third-quarter target in early May, reinforced by a new ticking fee that adds cash for any delay past December 31. Antitrust review by the DOJ, FCC scrutiny of foreign ownership stakes exceeding 49%, and European competition concerns remain the primary swing factors. Hollywood opposition and lawmaker letters on content influence add noise but have not yet altered the regulatory timeline. Traders view the post-shareholder momentum and explicit 2026 expectations as outweighing realistic last-minute delays from approvals.