The single-tournament record of 13 goals, set by Just Fontaine for France in 1958, stands as a statistical outlier that modern World Cup conditions make nearly impossible to surpass. Expanded 48-team formats and 104 total matches increase overall scoring volume, yet top individual outputs in recent editions have rarely exceeded eight or nine goals even for elite forwards like Kylian Mbappé or Lionel Messi, reflecting tighter defensive structures, higher competition depth across the field, and squad rotation in longer knockout runs. Trader consensus around 96% for “No” aligns with this pattern, as no player has approached double digits in a single edition for decades. Realistic paths that could still shift the market include an exceptional hot streak by a star attacker on a deep run combined with favorable early draws and minimal rotation, though such a scenario would require unprecedented efficiency well beyond historical benchmarks.