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icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

6月 10

6月 10

2nd hottest 56%

1st hottest 32%

3rd hottest 10.7%

4th or lower 2.4%

Polymarket

$92,221 交易量

2nd hottest 56%

1st hottest 32%

3rd hottest 10.7%

4th or lower 2.4%

Polymarket

$92,221 交易量

1st hottest

$8,788 交易量

32%

2nd hottest

$1,610 交易量

56%

3rd hottest

$38,158 交易量

11%

4th or lower

$43,665 交易量

2%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus strongly favors May 2026 global surface air temperatures ranking as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), narrowly behind May 2024's benchmark and ahead of May 2025's prior second-place, with 33% odds for first place. This positioning stems from preliminary ERA5 reanalysis showing early May anomalies approaching 2024 levels, bolstered by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion forecasting an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July—a pattern that elevates sea surface temperatures and global averages. April 2026 tied for third-warmest (1.43°C above pre-industrial per Copernicus), sustaining the heat streak amid neutral-to-El Niño transition, though late-May atmospheric variability introduces uncertainty. Watch Copernicus and NOAA monthly bulletins in early June for resolution-defining data.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$92,221
結束日期
2026-06-10
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus strongly favors May 2026 global surface air temperatures ranking as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), narrowly behind May 2024's benchmark and ahead of May 2025's prior second-place, with 33% odds for first place. This positioning stems from preliminary ERA5 reanalysis showing early May anomalies approaching 2024 levels, bolstered by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion forecasting an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July—a pattern that elevates sea surface temperatures and global averages. April 2026 tied for third-warmest (1.43°C above pre-industrial per Copernicus), sustaining the heat streak amid neutral-to-El Niño transition, though late-May atmospheric variability introduces uncertainty. Watch Copernicus and NOAA monthly bulletins in early June for resolution-defining data.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$92,221
結束日期
2026-06-10
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2nd hottest" at 56%, followed by "1st hottest" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" has generated $92.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is "2nd hottest" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1st hottest" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.