Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1901–2000 baseline, closely mirroring NOAA's April 2026 reading of 1.12ºC—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center latest update indicates an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, with multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–June–July nearly globally, supporting elevated odds in adjacent bins like 1.15–1.19ºC (24%). Lower probabilities for extremes reflect historical May variability, lingering La Niña influences, and uncertainty in early El Niño intensity; watch NOAA's next ENSO diagnostic and seasonal outlooks for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 52%
1.15–1.19ºC 24%
<1.10ºC 14%
1.20–1.24ºC 8%
$43,348 交易量
$43,348 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
14%
1.10–1.14ºC
52%
1.15–1.19ºC
24%
1.20–1.24ºC
8%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 52%
1.15–1.19ºC 24%
<1.10ºC 14%
1.20–1.24ºC 8%
$43,348 交易量
$43,348 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$20,168 交易量
14%
1.10–1.14ºC
$3,433 交易量
52%
1.15–1.19ºC
$4,882 交易量
24%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,478 交易量
8%
1.25–1.29ºC
$4,596 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$6,829 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1901–2000 baseline, closely mirroring NOAA's April 2026 reading of 1.12ºC—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center latest update indicates an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, with multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–June–July nearly globally, supporting elevated odds in adjacent bins like 1.15–1.19ºC (24%). Lower probabilities for extremes reflect historical May variability, lingering La Niña influences, and uncertainty in early El Niño intensity; watch NOAA's next ENSO diagnostic and seasonal outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$43,348結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1901–2000 baseline, closely mirroring NOAA's April 2026 reading of 1.12ºC—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center latest update indicates an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, with multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–June–July nearly globally, supporting elevated odds in adjacent bins like 1.15–1.19ºC (24%). Lower probabilities for extremes reflect historical May variability, lingering La Niña influences, and uncertainty in early El Niño intensity; watch NOAA's next ENSO diagnostic and seasonal outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$43,348結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1901–2000 baseline, closely mirroring NOAA's April 2026 reading of 1.12ºC—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center latest update indicates an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, with multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–June–July nearly globally, supporting elevated odds in adjacent bins like 1.15–1.19ºC (24%). Lower probabilities for extremes reflect historical May variability, lingering La Niña influences, and uncertainty in early El Niño intensity; watch NOAA's next ENSO diagnostic and seasonal outlooks for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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