Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
21°C 35%
22°C 28.5%
20°C 19%
23°C or higher 18.6%
最新
$12,270 交易量
最新
$12,270 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
19%
21°C
33%
22°C
29%
23°C or higher
19%
21°C 35%
22°C 28.5%
20°C 19%
23°C or higher 18.6%
最新
$12,270 交易量
最新
$12,270 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C or below
$1,499 交易量
<1%
14°C
$681 交易量
<1%
15°C
$521 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,038 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,994 交易量
1%
18°C
$1,907 交易量
1%
19°C
$1,042 交易量
4%
20°C
$352 交易量
19%
21°C
$535 交易量
33%
22°C
$499 交易量
29%
23°C or higher
$2,316 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
交易量
$12,270結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$12,270結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions