Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to a 14°C maximum temperature in Munich on May 15, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, UK Met Office, and GFS ensembles that converge on 13-14°C peaks amid a persistent low-pressure system over Central Europe. Morning observations at Munich Airport (EDDM) show 7-8°C under broken clouds, northerly winds of 10-15 km/h, and 85% humidity, with 50-70% shower risks and overcast conditions inhibiting diurnal heating and limiting highs well below mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C. Secondary odds on 15°C (28.5%) account for outlier GFS members suggesting brief clearing, while 13°C (17.5%) hedges persistent cloudiness; real-time METAR updates this afternoon will refine outcomes ahead of end-of-day resolution using Wunderground data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
14°C 42%
13°C 38%
15°C 15%
16°C 1.1%
$40,758 交易量
$40,758 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
38%
14°C
42%
15°C
15%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
14°C 42%
13°C 38%
15°C 15%
16°C 1.1%
$40,758 交易量
$40,758 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
38%
14°C
42%
15°C
15%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52.5% implied probability to a 14°C maximum temperature in Munich on May 15, reflecting the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF, UK Met Office, and GFS ensembles that converge on 13-14°C peaks amid a persistent low-pressure system over Central Europe. Morning observations at Munich Airport (EDDM) show 7-8°C under broken clouds, northerly winds of 10-15 km/h, and 85% humidity, with 50-70% shower risks and overcast conditions inhibiting diurnal heating and limiting highs well below mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C. Secondary odds on 15°C (28.5%) account for outlier GFS members suggesting brief clearing, while 13°C (17.5%) hedges persistent cloudiness; real-time METAR updates this afternoon will refine outcomes ahead of end-of-day resolution using Wunderground data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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