National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models currently project a peak temperature near or above 86°F in Houston on May 17 under mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the strong market-implied probability exceeding 90 percent for that outcome, reflecting efficient daytime heating beneath a weak upper-level ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Mid-May climatological normals near 87°F provide additional context for why traders heavily favor the warmer bracket, while recent observations show overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s allowing rapid warming once insolation begins. Any increase in convective cloudiness or a slight shift in steering flow could trim highs into the low-to-mid 80s, though model consensus through the latest runs supports the higher range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日休斯敦的最高溫度?
86°F or higher 90.6%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 2.3%
80-81°F <1%
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
91%
86°F or higher 90.6%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 2.3%
80-81°F <1%
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
91%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models currently project a peak temperature near or above 86°F in Houston on May 17 under mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the strong market-implied probability exceeding 90 percent for that outcome, reflecting efficient daytime heating beneath a weak upper-level ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Mid-May climatological normals near 87°F provide additional context for why traders heavily favor the warmer bracket, while recent observations show overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s allowing rapid warming once insolation begins. Any increase in convective cloudiness or a slight shift in steering flow could trim highs into the low-to-mid 80s, though model consensus through the latest runs supports the higher range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions