Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecast of a 30°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 16 drives the market’s near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge is steering moist southerly flow across the region, while partly cloudy skies allow sufficient surface heating to reach but not exceed this threshold. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan supports this range, with typical highs near 29–31°C under similar synoptic patterns. Real-time observational data from official stations continue to align with ensemble model consensus showing limited potential for additional warming. A rapid clearing of cloud cover or an unforecasted shift in wind direction could still push readings to 31°C or higher before the daily peak is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Taipei on May 16?
30°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,497 交易量
$57,497 交易量
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
是
31°C或以上
否
30°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,497 交易量
$57,497 交易量
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
是
31°C或以上
否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecast of a 30°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 16 drives the market’s near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge is steering moist southerly flow across the region, while partly cloudy skies allow sufficient surface heating to reach but not exceed this threshold. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan supports this range, with typical highs near 29–31°C under similar synoptic patterns. Real-time observational data from official stations continue to align with ensemble model consensus showing limited potential for additional warming. A rapid clearing of cloud cover or an unforecasted shift in wind direction could still push readings to 31°C or higher before the daily peak is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions