Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) medium-range forecast guidance, updated as of May 15, positions Seoul's May 17 high near 25–26°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies and above-normal temperatures, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 27.5% for exactly 25°C. This reflects recent warm advection following a 31°C peak on May 14, with model ensembles showing consensus for peak afternoon heating amid light winds and negligible precipitation risk (0–20%). Historical mid-May highs average 23°C, but current subsidence and sunny conditions favor mild intensification potential. Watch KMA's daily short-term update tomorrow for refined hourly maxima, as small shifts in cloud cover could tip outcomes between these leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日首爾最高溫度?
5月17日首爾最高溫度?
26°C or higher 50%
25°C 29%
24°C 15%
23°C 8%
$29,082 交易量
$29,082 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
15%
25°C
29%
26°C or higher
50%
26°C or higher 50%
25°C 29%
24°C 15%
23°C 8%
$29,082 交易量
$29,082 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
15%
25°C
29%
26°C or higher
50%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) medium-range forecast guidance, updated as of May 15, positions Seoul's May 17 high near 25–26°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies and above-normal temperatures, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 27.5% for exactly 25°C. This reflects recent warm advection following a 31°C peak on May 14, with model ensembles showing consensus for peak afternoon heating amid light winds and negligible precipitation risk (0–20%). Historical mid-May highs average 23°C, but current subsidence and sunny conditions favor mild intensification potential. Watch KMA's daily short-term update tomorrow for refined hourly maxima, as small shifts in cloud cover could tip outcomes between these leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions