Recent cool, unstable weather across northern France, driven by northerly air flows and persistent cloud cover, is anchoring forecast overnight lows for Paris on May 19 near 10–11 °C according to the latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble guidance. This setup limits daytime warming and reduces radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures below the seasonal climatological average of roughly 9–11 °C. Clearer skies overnight could allow greater heat loss and shift the outcome toward 9 °C or lower, while any strengthening southerly advection or reduced cloudiness would favor readings near 12 °C. Traders are therefore closely tracking the next model runs and surface observations through the weekend, as small changes in the timing of a possible ridge can readily move the narrow distribution among the tightly bunched leading contracts.