Japan Meteorological Agency ensemble models currently cluster Tokyo’s May 20 overnight low near 18–21 °C, driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities across those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology shows a gradual seasonal rise in minimum temperatures from roughly 14 °C early in the month toward 17–19 °C by the 20th, modulated by persistent high pressure that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling under light winds. Subtle differences in forecast guidance hinge on whether a weak frontal boundary or increased low-level moisture arrives late on the 19th, potentially limiting cooling to 19–20 °C, versus continued dry northerly flow that could allow a dip to 17–18 °C. Updated JMA runs and international model consensus expected within the next 48 hours will narrow the uncertainty range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月20日東京最低溫度？
5月20日東京最低溫度？
18°C 24%
21°C 21%
19°C 15%
20°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-05-20
15°C或以下
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
5%
18°C
24%
19°C
15%
20°C
13%
21°C
17%
22°C
10%
23°C
6%
24°C
3%
25°C或以上
5%
18°C 24%
21°C 21%
19°C 15%
20°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-05-20
15°C或以下
$18 交易量
1%
16°C
$36 交易量
6%
17°C
$6 交易量
5%
18°C
$16 交易量
24%
19°C
$6 交易量
15%
20°C
$0 交易量
13%
21°C
$16 交易量
17%
22°C
$6 交易量
10%
23°C
$6 交易量
6%
24°C
$24 交易量
3%
25°C或以上
$216 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency ensemble models currently cluster Tokyo’s May 20 overnight low near 18–21 °C, driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities across those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology shows a gradual seasonal rise in minimum temperatures from roughly 14 °C early in the month toward 17–19 °C by the 20th, modulated by persistent high pressure that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling under light winds. Subtle differences in forecast guidance hinge on whether a weak frontal boundary or increased low-level moisture arrives late on the 19th, potentially limiting cooling to 19–20 °C, versus continued dry northerly flow that could allow a dip to 17–18 °C. Updated JMA runs and international model consensus expected within the next 48 hours will narrow the uncertainty range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$350結束日期
2026-05-20市場開放時間
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency ensemble models currently cluster Tokyo’s May 20 overnight low near 18–21 °C, driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities across those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology shows a gradual seasonal rise in minimum temperatures from roughly 14 °C early in the month toward 17–19 °C by the 20th, modulated by persistent high pressure that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling under light winds. Subtle differences in forecast guidance hinge on whether a weak frontal boundary or increased low-level moisture arrives late on the 19th, potentially limiting cooling to 19–20 °C, versus continued dry northerly flow that could allow a dip to 17–18 °C. Updated JMA runs and international model consensus expected within the next 48 hours will narrow the uncertainty range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$350結束日期
2026-05-20市場開放時間
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETJapan Meteorological Agency ensemble models currently cluster Tokyo’s May 20 overnight low near 18–21 °C, driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities across those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology shows a gradual seasonal rise in minimum temperatures from roughly 14 °C early in the month toward 17–19 °C by the 20th, modulated by persistent high pressure that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling under light winds. Subtle differences in forecast guidance hinge on whether a weak frontal boundary or increased low-level moisture arrives late on the 19th, potentially limiting cooling to 19–20 °C, versus continued dry northerly flow that could allow a dip to 17–18 °C. Updated JMA runs and international model consensus expected within the next 48 hours will narrow the uncertainty range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions