Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance places Tokyo’s May 17 overnight minimum near 17 °C, with ensemble members clustered between 16 °C and 18 °C under stable high-pressure conditions that limit radiative cooling. Slight differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between the 45.5 % and 36.5 % implied probabilities for 17 °C and 18 °C. Historical May climatology for the Otemachi station shows typical lows of 15–18 °C, so the present setup sits close to seasonal norms with minimal synoptic forcing. Final model runs and the official 12–24-hour forecast update remain the key variables that could shift the one-degree outcome before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日東京的最低溫度？
5月17日東京的最低溫度？
17°C 53%
18°C 38%
16°C 3.5%
15°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
14°C或以下
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
45%
18°C
38%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
<1%
17°C 53%
18°C 38%
16°C 3.5%
15°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
14°C或以下
$941 交易量
1%
15°C
$783 交易量
1%
16°C
$328 交易量
4%
17°C
$130 交易量
45%
18°C
$139 交易量
38%
19°C
$1,632 交易量
<1%
20°C
$3,511 交易量
<1%
21°C
$564 交易量
<1%
22°C
$382 交易量
<1%
23°C
$688 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$396 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance places Tokyo’s May 17 overnight minimum near 17 °C, with ensemble members clustered between 16 °C and 18 °C under stable high-pressure conditions that limit radiative cooling. Slight differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between the 45.5 % and 36.5 % implied probabilities for 17 °C and 18 °C. Historical May climatology for the Otemachi station shows typical lows of 15–18 °C, so the present setup sits close to seasonal norms with minimal synoptic forcing. Final model runs and the official 12–24-hour forecast update remain the key variables that could shift the one-degree outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
交易量
$9,492結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance places Tokyo’s May 17 overnight minimum near 17 °C, with ensemble members clustered between 16 °C and 18 °C under stable high-pressure conditions that limit radiative cooling. Slight differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between the 45.5 % and 36.5 % implied probabilities for 17 °C and 18 °C. Historical May climatology for the Otemachi station shows typical lows of 15–18 °C, so the present setup sits close to seasonal norms with minimal synoptic forcing. Final model runs and the official 12–24-hour forecast update remain the key variables that could shift the one-degree outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,492結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETCurrent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance places Tokyo’s May 17 overnight minimum near 17 °C, with ensemble members clustered between 16 °C and 18 °C under stable high-pressure conditions that limit radiative cooling. Slight differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between the 45.5 % and 36.5 % implied probabilities for 17 °C and 18 °C. Historical May climatology for the Otemachi station shows typical lows of 15–18 °C, so the present setup sits close to seasonal norms with minimal synoptic forcing. Final model runs and the official 12–24-hour forecast update remain the key variables that could shift the one-degree outcome before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions