Recent forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Munich’s maximum temperature on May 16 will most likely settle in the 12–13 °C range, driven by persistent low-level cloud cover, light northerly flow, and scattered showers that limit daytime warming. These conditions have kept surface temperatures several degrees below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18 °C. Updated model runs overnight showed only minor adjustments, reinforcing the tight clustering around 12–13 °C while leaving a small window for 14 °C if clearing occurs earlier than projected. Traders have responded by pricing these two outcomes at a combined 69.5 % implied probability, reflecting high in the consensus guidance ahead of final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on May 16?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 16?
13°C 39%
12°C 30%
14°C 28%
15°C 5.1%
$16,719 交易量
$16,719 交易量
2026-05-16
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
30%
13°C
39%
14°C
28%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 39%
12°C 30%
14°C 28%
15°C 5.1%
$16,719 交易量
$16,719 交易量
2026-05-16
8°C
$1,102 交易量
<1%
9°C
$689 交易量
<1%
10°C
$979 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,398 交易量
2%
12°C
$2,348 交易量
30%
13°C
$1,946 交易量
39%
14°C
$2,008 交易量
28%
15°C
$2,275 交易量
5%
16°C
$1,958 交易量
1%
17°C or higher
$1,241 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Munich’s maximum temperature on May 16 will most likely settle in the 12–13 °C range, driven by persistent low-level cloud cover, light northerly flow, and scattered showers that limit daytime warming. These conditions have kept surface temperatures several degrees below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18 °C. Updated model runs overnight showed only minor adjustments, reinforcing the tight clustering around 12–13 °C while leaving a small window for 14 °C if clearing occurs earlier than projected. Traders have responded by pricing these two outcomes at a combined 69.5 % implied probability, reflecting high in the consensus guidance ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
交易量
$16,719結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Munich’s maximum temperature on May 16 will most likely settle in the 12–13 °C range, driven by persistent low-level cloud cover, light northerly flow, and scattered showers that limit daytime warming. These conditions have kept surface temperatures several degrees below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18 °C. Updated model runs overnight showed only minor adjustments, reinforcing the tight clustering around 12–13 °C while leaving a small window for 14 °C if clearing occurs earlier than projected. Traders have responded by pricing these two outcomes at a combined 69.5 % implied probability, reflecting high in the consensus guidance ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,719結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETRecent forecast models from the German Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Munich’s maximum temperature on May 16 will most likely settle in the 12–13 °C range, driven by persistent low-level cloud cover, light northerly flow, and scattered showers that limit daytime warming. These conditions have kept surface temperatures several degrees below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18 °C. Updated model runs overnight showed only minor adjustments, reinforcing the tight clustering around 12–13 °C while leaving a small window for 14 °C if clearing occurs earlier than projected. Traders have responded by pricing these two outcomes at a combined 69.5 % implied probability, reflecting high in the consensus guidance ahead of final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions