Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast projecting up to 28°C under partly cloudy skies and a 10% precipitation chance, contrasted by ensemble model means clustering at 25–26°C. A persistent high-pressure ridge has fueled recent warmer-than-normal highs, including 26°C on May 13, exceeding mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, but uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud development limiting insolation versus sustained sunshine, plus sea breeze effects moderating coastal heat. JMA short-range mesoscale model updates expected this afternoon could refine these odds before resolution via official Tokyo station observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
26°C 32%
25°C 31%
27°C 22%
24°C 16%
最新
$45,986 交易量
最新
$45,986 交易量
2026-05-16
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
16%
25°C
31%
26°C
32%
27°C
22%
28°C or higher
3%
26°C 32%
25°C 31%
27°C 22%
24°C 16%
最新
$45,986 交易量
最新
$45,986 交易量
2026-05-16
18°C or below
$7,240 交易量
<1%
19°C
$11,353 交易量
<1%
20°C
$7,629 交易量
<1%
21°C
$2,277 交易量
1%
22°C
$4,694 交易量
1%
23°C
$3,258 交易量
2%
24°C
$1,765 交易量
16%
25°C
$1,733 交易量
31%
26°C
$2,153 交易量
32%
27°C
$1,945 交易量
22%
28°C or higher
$1,984 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast projecting up to 28°C under partly cloudy skies and a 10% precipitation chance, contrasted by ensemble model means clustering at 25–26°C. A persistent high-pressure ridge has fueled recent warmer-than-normal highs, including 26°C on May 13, exceeding mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, but uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud development limiting insolation versus sustained sunshine, plus sea breeze effects moderating coastal heat. JMA short-range mesoscale model updates expected this afternoon could refine these odds before resolution via official Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
交易量
$45,986結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast projecting up to 28°C under partly cloudy skies and a 10% precipitation chance, contrasted by ensemble model means clustering at 25–26°C. A persistent high-pressure ridge has fueled recent warmer-than-normal highs, including 26°C on May 13, exceeding mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, but uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud development limiting insolation versus sustained sunshine, plus sea breeze effects moderating coastal heat. JMA short-range mesoscale model updates expected this afternoon could refine these odds before resolution via official Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$45,986結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (32.5% implied probability) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast projecting up to 28°C under partly cloudy skies and a 10% precipitation chance, contrasted by ensemble model means clustering at 25–26°C. A persistent high-pressure ridge has fueled recent warmer-than-normal highs, including 26°C on May 13, exceeding mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, but uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud development limiting insolation versus sustained sunshine, plus sea breeze effects moderating coastal heat. JMA short-range mesoscale model updates expected this afternoon could refine these odds before resolution via official Tokyo station observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions