The tightly clustered probabilities for 20–22°C reflect genuine uncertainty in the latest ensemble model runs for Istanbul’s peak temperature tomorrow, with consensus around a modest spring high near the seasonal average of 21°C. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover over the Marmara region, which could limit daytime heating, and wind patterns that may either draw cooler air from the Black Sea or allow brief warming from continental flow. Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will record the maximum at primary stations, where small shifts in timing of any clearing skies or afternoon breeze could easily move the final reading by 1–2°C.