Recent high-resolution forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble place Madrid’s peak temperature near 20–21 °C on May 16, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. A building high-pressure ridge combined with northerly flow and residual cloud cover from earlier spring showers is suppressing diurnal heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread remains modest, with GFS runs slightly warmer and ECMWF cooler due to lingering soil moisture; afternoon boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation will determine whether the official Madrid-Barajas reading settles at 20 °C or edges to 21 °C. Updated AEMET guidance this afternoon should narrow the remaining uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 58%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
22°C 2.5%
$49,752 交易量
$49,752 交易量
2026-05-16
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
20%
20°C
58%
21°C
22%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 58%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
22°C 2.5%
$49,752 交易量
$49,752 交易量
2026-05-16
16°C
$5,404 交易量
<1%
17°C
$7,535 交易量
<1%
18°C
$5,880 交易量
1%
19°C
$4,352 交易量
20%
20°C
$4,260 交易量
58%
21°C
$5,129 交易量
22%
22°C
$3,235 交易量
3%
23°C
$3,847 交易量
1%
24°C
$3,861 交易量
1%
25°C or higher
$2,350 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent high-resolution forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble place Madrid’s peak temperature near 20–21 °C on May 16, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. A building high-pressure ridge combined with northerly flow and residual cloud cover from earlier spring showers is suppressing diurnal heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread remains modest, with GFS runs slightly warmer and ECMWF cooler due to lingering soil moisture; afternoon boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation will determine whether the official Madrid-Barajas reading settles at 20 °C or edges to 21 °C. Updated AEMET guidance this afternoon should narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$49,752結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent high-resolution forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble place Madrid’s peak temperature near 20–21 °C on May 16, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. A building high-pressure ridge combined with northerly flow and residual cloud cover from earlier spring showers is suppressing diurnal heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread remains modest, with GFS runs slightly warmer and ECMWF cooler due to lingering soil moisture; afternoon boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation will determine whether the official Madrid-Barajas reading settles at 20 °C or edges to 21 °C. Updated AEMET guidance this afternoon should narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$49,752結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent high-resolution forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble place Madrid’s peak temperature near 20–21 °C on May 16, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. A building high-pressure ridge combined with northerly flow and residual cloud cover from earlier spring showers is suppressing diurnal heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread remains modest, with GFS runs slightly warmer and ECMWF cooler due to lingering soil moisture; afternoon boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation will determine whether the official Madrid-Barajas reading settles at 20 °C or edges to 21 °C. Updated AEMET guidance this afternoon should narrow the remaining uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions