Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System sustain a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, suppressing convective heating and holding Madrid’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17. This pattern, reinforced by light northerly flow and mostly clear skies, positions 22°C as the market’s leading outcome at 43 percent implied probability, with 21°C and 23°C trailing at 25.5 and 22 percent. Historical May climatology shows similar ridge setups typically produce highs of 20–24°C, aligning closely with the narrow distribution traders currently price. Updated model runs through tonight will determine whether any modest warming or cooling signal emerges before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日馬德裏氣溫最高?
22°C 43%
21°C 26%
23°C 24%
24°C 9%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
26%
22°C
43%
23°C
24%
24°C
9%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 43%
21°C 26%
23°C 24%
24°C 9%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
26%
22°C
43%
23°C
24%
24°C
9%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System sustain a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, suppressing convective heating and holding Madrid’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17. This pattern, reinforced by light northerly flow and mostly clear skies, positions 22°C as the market’s leading outcome at 43 percent implied probability, with 21°C and 23°C trailing at 25.5 and 22 percent. Historical May climatology shows similar ridge setups typically produce highs of 20–24°C, aligning closely with the narrow distribution traders currently price. Updated model runs through tonight will determine whether any modest warming or cooling signal emerges before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions