Recent ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a mild overnight pattern for Paris on May 20, with daily minimum temperatures most likely settling between 10°C and 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This positioning favors the 16°C-or-higher outcome at 44.5% because recent model runs have trended warmer than seasonal normals, reflecting a transient high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiational cooling. The 11–12°C cluster at 36% reflects residual uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, while probabilities below 10°C remain low given the absence of strong northerly advection. Historical mid-May climatology places average lows near 9°C, so any further model warming over the next 48 hours could reinforce the current market tilt toward milder readings.