Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
13°C 37%
14°C 31%
15°C 17%
12°C or below 9.6%
最新
$19,268 交易量
最新
$19,268 交易量
2026-05-16
12°C or below
10%
13°C
37%
14°C
31%
15°C
17%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 37%
14°C 31%
15°C 17%
12°C or below 9.6%
最新
$19,268 交易量
最新
$19,268 交易量
2026-05-16
12°C or below
$2,156 交易量
10%
13°C
$2,099 交易量
37%
14°C
$1,865 交易量
31%
15°C
$2,150 交易量
17%
16°C
$1,922 交易量
2%
17°C
$1,009 交易量
1%
18°C
$885 交易量
1%
19°C
$1,868 交易量
1%
20°C
$2,098 交易量
<1%
21°C
$1,204 交易量
<1%
22°C or higher
$2,130 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$19,268結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$19,268結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions