Latest European forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show a modest high near 13°C in Warsaw on May 17 driven by a cooler northwesterly flow and lingering cloud cover that limits daytime warming. This places the market-implied odds heavily on the 12–14°C band, consistent with current surface observations and ensemble spread that rarely exceeds 15°C under these conditions. Historical May climatology favors warmer peaks near 18°C, but persistent high pressure to the north has kept temperatures suppressed this week, reducing the chance of rapid afternoon heating. Traders are monitoring the next model update cycle for any shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction that could push readings one degree higher or lower before official verification at 6 p.m. local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日華沙的最高溫度?
13°C 36%
12°C 29.9%
14°C 20%
11°C 10%
$10,603 交易量
$10,603 交易量
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
3%
11°C
10%
12°C
30%
13°C
36%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
9%
13°C 36%
12°C 29.9%
14°C 20%
11°C 10%
$10,603 交易量
$10,603 交易量
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
3%
11°C
10%
12°C
30%
13°C
36%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest European forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show a modest high near 13°C in Warsaw on May 17 driven by a cooler northwesterly flow and lingering cloud cover that limits daytime warming. This places the market-implied odds heavily on the 12–14°C band, consistent with current surface observations and ensemble spread that rarely exceeds 15°C under these conditions. Historical May climatology favors warmer peaks near 18°C, but persistent high pressure to the north has kept temperatures suppressed this week, reducing the chance of rapid afternoon heating. Traders are monitoring the next model update cycle for any shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction that could push readings one degree higher or lower before official verification at 6 p.m. local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions